Companies and equity markets are engaged in one of those ugly dances around an old truth: piles of cash and earnings based on cost cutting are a poor recipe for improving stock prices and expanding multiples. Investors crave growth. Growth in revenues now often leads to growth in earnings later. Multiples and prices seldom move up until investors believe the story and see the path.
CEOs, in turn, are becoming a bit frantic. Where are the new revenues to come from? Especially those expanding streams of revenue growing into the future as far as the eye can see? Steve Jobs is unique and therefore a poor model for the rest of us.
What to do? An article in the current issue of The Economist [1] suggests an approach. The writer opines on the benefits of knowledge and ideas gained from chance encounters through greater attendance to urban networks, industry confabs and online social networks. There is certainly value here although unpredictable in frequency and adequacy. It’s a tough strategy to bet the business on.
“One aspect of [the] original definition of serendipity that is often missed in modern discussions of the word is the "sagacity" of being able to link together apparently innocuous facts to come to a valuable conclusion.” [2] The potentially helpful chance encounter delivers a benefit only if the acquirer is prepared to recognize and receive it. [3]
Thanks to the global reset of the Great Recession, the coming decade will be unlike anything most of us have ever seen. Owner/CEOs and other business leaders must fundamentally re-think their assumptions, large and small:
- The earth has shifted beneath our feet. What does the new world look like?
- What parts of our framing worldview remain true and which parts must be discarded?
- The land is rising in some places and falling in others. On which do we stand?
Forget the past and open your minds to the future. Sit, watch and listen for new ideas. [4] They will surely come to those who are patient and focused.
[1] “Schumpeter: In search of serendipity”, The Economist, 7/24/10, p. 67
[3] “In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind.” Louis Pasteur - http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur
[4] The notion of “sitting for ideas” was attributed to Dr. Elmer Gates by Napoleon Hill in Success Through a Positive Mental Attitude
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