Many areas of the modern world - including politics , business, and economics - suffer from the same malady: a pretence of knowledge.
We claim knowledge to justify our decisions, actions and opinions when in reality we are often "making it up as we go along." Assumptions (often undisclosed) take the place of empirical evidence, rationalization masquerades as theory, and unspoken biases underpin our "thoughtful opinions."
Occasionally, a truth teller emerges to call his fellow travelers to account. Such is Paul Romer, chief economist at the World Bank, who has recently begun castigating his fellow macroeconomists for what might be termed their wooly thinking. (The Economist, 9/24/16)
Sound decision making requires clarity about what we know and what we don't know, what the risks are and how much risk we are willing to take, and what we might do next when our plans inevitably fail to pan out the way we had hoped.