Many CEOs rely on acquisitions of other companies or product lines as an important component of their overall growth strategy. However, they seldom look back through rigorous post-acquisition financial analyses to measure their return on investment (ROI), especially how the deals performed versus expectations at the time of the deal.
I prefer two relatively simple measures: annual cash-on-cash (COC) return on capital invested and cash payback or how long will it take for the buyer to recover its investment on a cash basis. Other methods such as discounted cash flow, while more theoretically pure, suffer from complexity of calculation and estimation bias when trying to determine appropriate discount rates. If not done properly, the analysis is worse than worthless.
A proper analysis should be performed on an annual basis covering all significant acquisitions made by the company (or the current management team). EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), adjusted for significant changes in the level of capital expenditures and working capital, is often a reasonable proxy for cash. Some would argue that free cash flow is a better proxy. Pick a method and use it consistently.
The real question and value is less in the numbers than whether the management team holds itself accountable for results through an open and honest “lessons learned” analysis.
One company recently completed its annual exercise indicating somewhat mixed cumulative returns for several transactions over several years with COC returns barely exceeding the company’s weighted average cost of capital. On the qualitative side, one acquisition was truly transformational and displayed excellent returns.
It’s better to do deals with your eyes wide open than your eyes wide shut.
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